It is a pipe dream to think that Iran’s government has any other intention then to march towards a nuclear weapon. Iran’s hardliners have a strong interest to counterbalance the Sunni’s and spread the Shia influence as far as it can throughout the Middle East. On the flip side, countries like Saudi Arabia also have a strong interest to counterbalance the Shia’s and to spread the Sunni influence as far as it can throughout the region. Israel and ISIS are also in this mix. As long as Israel is armed to the teeth with their nukes, the Iranian Supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the radical religious mullahs, hard core government politicians and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will continue in their pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Because of years of international sanctions, mismanagement of the economy, collapsing oil prices, as well as massive crony corruption by the elite powerful members of society, the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has his back up against the wall and must have the current front man President Hassan Rouhani continue to negotiate with the P5 + 1 countries. Likewise, to obtain economic relief, Iran will have to temporally put on ice its nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran desperately needs to have the sanctions lifted to help stabilize an economy that is in tatters.
President Rouhani is more diplomatic as opposed to the former president Ahmadinejad.Make no mistake, the behind the scenes big boss running the country is Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is a chip off the block, from the past Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini. Further, Supreme leader Khamenei must at all costs keep Assad the dictator of Syria in power. The Iranian government will continue to act behind the curtain, pulling the strings of the dwindling Assad kingdom. As for little Assad’s brutal regime, the Iranians have been and will continue to be up to their eyeballs in the country. If Syria falls, Iran’s geopolitical strategy will be at great risk. This is one problematic situation that must really keep the religious mullahs and the hard core Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps up at night.
As for the nuclear negotiations, The Iranians are tough and they have centuries of experience in their culture of pressing the palms and grinding out a good deal and they will not be push overs. There will be continuing back and fourths, delays and changes during the up and down negotiations. Because of the sharpie bare knuckle Iranian delegates, American Secretary of State John Kerry and the other participants sitting at the table will have to continue to constantly stay on their toes. All the while, the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei will be back in Tehran, keeping all of his subordinates on a very tight leash and ultimately having the final say in the discussions. Bottom line – the negotiations are a big waste of time. With all the upheaval going on in Iran’s backyard, the hard liners are even more freaked out than ever. They will continue with or without a deal in their march towards obtaining nuclear weapons.
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